Monday, July 2, 2012

Somali Independece Day, Catalyst to Al-Shabaab Garissa Attack

Intelligence analysis on terrorist planning, objectives, and patterns in their actions provide insight on what motivated the Garissa church attacks in Kenya by the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab.

Strategic Intelligence critically analyzed past actions of terrorists, including their dates, time, and relatively important times of the year to identify collation with aspects of the Garissa attack.

Terrorists actions and motivations are drawn from 'Freedom/independence from bondage or invasions and Kenya's KDF entry to Somalia to rout the militants links the 1st July Somali independence day with a jihad to gain freedom from Christian invasion (propaganda coined by the Al-Shabaab militants).

Al-Shabaab wanted a symbolic event to coincide with a similar one and their success in either would be embedded in the short-term history.

Objectives of such attacks is to inspire unity of purpose; terrorists use such success to rally unity and win sympathy from their follower.

The success levels of such an attack reposes confidence on the following besides weakening the perceived enemy's faith and purpose.

Al-Shabaab will continue to use such tactics to degrade the Kenya army's success against their reign in Somalia for a period.

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