Kenya internal security experts have fallen to the Al-Shabaab Trap by venturing into a security operation that will end up stoking ethno-religious problems in the area.
A massive intelligence officers operation has been launched in the North Eastern area of Kenya.
In Garissa alone, 80 people of origin X have been arrested
NSIS, GSU, Kenya police have swarmed the area to increase the hunt for Al-Shabaab operatives with most suspects being people from Somali origin suspected to be part of the proscribed militant outfit.
The end result will be religious animosity
Islamic faith followers will feel threatened and insulted since most of those arrested belong to their faith and are innocent.
Regardless of the local Somali citizens and elders hope for tolerance and objectiveness, this will not be taken well by the larger section of the population.
They will feel victimized and isolated for no apparent reason.
Al-Shabaab will take credit for misleading the Kenya Intelligence service and the police to launch a war against non-Christians.
They can easily radicalize youths through such a proxy reason and fan religious problems
Terror cells are operated by a tiny number of operatives who use SIGNIT or signal intelligence to communicate.
Garissa cannot have a terror cell with 80-operatives which is equal to 4-platoons of troops.
The objective of the attackers was to use a proxy war to fan ethno-religious animosity.
Solution was to launch a
covert operation away from the eys of the public and media using sleeper
agents who would close in on the suspects, then spirit them out of
their hideouts.
Kenya internal security system and intelligence have fallen to the trap hook, line and sinker.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Al-Shabaab denies Garissa attack
The Al-Qaeda linked Somali terrorist group Al-Shabaab has denied responsibility of the Garissa church attack
Intelligence shows, the attack was condemned by Al-Qaeda which supports the group.
Muslim teachings does not support killing of people in churches, let alone shed innocent blood.
Intelligence also shows Somali based Al-Shabaab leaders were not informed of the operation and were angry.
Al-Shabaab is tactically denying responsibility to avoid backlash and loss of Muslim faith support in their cause.
Intelligence shows, the attack was condemned by Al-Qaeda which supports the group.
Muslim teachings does not support killing of people in churches, let alone shed innocent blood.
Intelligence also shows Somali based Al-Shabaab leaders were not informed of the operation and were angry.
Al-Shabaab is tactically denying responsibility to avoid backlash and loss of Muslim faith support in their cause.
US Lifts Kenya Travel Advisory
The United States of America has lifted a travel ban/warning it had issued to its citizens against the Kenyan resort town of Mombasa besides other strategic locations such as Nairobi.
The lifting of the ban is a very strategic move to restore trust in the Kenya security system and capacity.
The lifting of the travel advisory also reposes confidence in the Kenya police anti-terror unit which is tasked with identifying and neutralizing terrorist threats.
The country expects to recover from a slump in its economic growth through a healthy tourism industry which is the second greatest contributor to the national economy.
The lifting of the ban is a very strategic move to restore trust in the Kenya security system and capacity.
The lifting of the travel advisory also reposes confidence in the Kenya police anti-terror unit which is tasked with identifying and neutralizing terrorist threats.
The country expects to recover from a slump in its economic growth through a healthy tourism industry which is the second greatest contributor to the national economy.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Terror Alert on Kenya
Terror Alert
Intelligence gathered and analyzed point to a possibility of an attack on heads of Kenya internal security system/Institution.
Events such as gunning down of security officials in areas where these militants operate signal a shift in ideology of targets.
Playing down of their capacity besides degrading the impact of their achievements by security chiefs will factor possibility ratio.
The psychology of terror capacitance is retaliatory actions targeted at aggressors leadership or areas of influence.
This report is generated after a comprehensive gathering of relevant information, critical analysis of the information/intelligence, fixing parts of the terrorist operations matrix to a complete threat matrix,(dependent on previous IMINT and OSINT intel sources) hence a pattern projecting possibility of similar actions in Kenya.
Possible Human targets would be top police official and administrators.
Possible target areas would be Wajir, Garissa, Mombasa, Nairobi.
Other areas with geography that favors speed and safe escape of a small unit are also targets.
Level of threat is medium
Intelligence gathered and analyzed point to a possibility of an attack on heads of Kenya internal security system/Institution.
Events such as gunning down of security officials in areas where these militants operate signal a shift in ideology of targets.
Playing down of their capacity besides degrading the impact of their achievements by security chiefs will factor possibility ratio.
The psychology of terror capacitance is retaliatory actions targeted at aggressors leadership or areas of influence.
This report is generated after a comprehensive gathering of relevant information, critical analysis of the information/intelligence, fixing parts of the terrorist operations matrix to a complete threat matrix,(dependent on previous IMINT and OSINT intel sources) hence a pattern projecting possibility of similar actions in Kenya.
Possible Human targets would be top police official and administrators.
Possible target areas would be Wajir, Garissa, Mombasa, Nairobi.
Other areas with geography that favors speed and safe escape of a small unit are also targets.
Level of threat is medium
Monday, July 2, 2012
Report on Boko-Haram and Yemeni-Al-Qaeda in Al-Shabaab Ranks
Strategic Intelligence News (http://intelligencebriefs.com/?p=2513)
Al-Shabaab Gets Yemeni Al-Qaeda and Boko-Haram Help
June 14 | Posted by David Goldman | Intelligence News, Military Intelligence
Al-Shabaab has bolstered its capacity by bringing in Boko-Haram
bomb making experts and commando trainers to up its degraded capability
in both guerrilla and bombing operations.
Al-Shabaab has also enlisted the help of Yemeni-Al-Qaeda operatives to provide training on IED’s and suicide missions.
Intelligence reports confirm that the militants are getting too much ground to regroup and plan counter measures in South, Middle, and Eastern Somalia.
Strategic Intelligence warns that there will be increased attacks on military personnel operating in Somalia as newly recruited and daring Al-Shabaab recruits and militancy graduates engage in these special operations.
Al-Shabaab will resurge in the coming weeks and months in a spirited attempt to preempt the peace efforts by AMISOM.
Kenya Defense Forces (KDF), will face a series of hit and runs-guerrilla attacks by units of Al-Shabaab guerillas. These guerrillas will use sniper fire, and bombings to inflict causality on the troops.
Al-Shabaab got a boost when at least 20 experts from different countries including Yemeni and Nigeria came to offer support.
Training and recruiting new troops is primary at this stage when the militant group is nearly defeated. They want more troops to deploy.
There has been a decline in their bombings in Mogadishu and other areas. This is due to lack of capacity in these departments and they are outsourcing.
Boko Haram are very good in bombings. They have wreaked havoc in Nigeria in the recent past and their success rate is very credible.
Yemeni Al-Qaeda is very successful in commando attacks, suicide bombings, and hit and runs. They will share this expertise with Al-Shabaab.
The training and deployment is a rapid program to facilitate faster procurement of desired results in both Somalia and Kenya.
Kenya and Somalia will be targets with Somalia being a good target for suicide bombers and guerrillas and Kenya a target of Suicide bombers and a major terrorist attack.
Al-Shabaab has also enlisted the help of Yemeni-Al-Qaeda operatives to provide training on IED’s and suicide missions.
Intelligence reports confirm that the militants are getting too much ground to regroup and plan counter measures in South, Middle, and Eastern Somalia.
Strategic Intelligence warns that there will be increased attacks on military personnel operating in Somalia as newly recruited and daring Al-Shabaab recruits and militancy graduates engage in these special operations.
Al-Shabaab will resurge in the coming weeks and months in a spirited attempt to preempt the peace efforts by AMISOM.
Kenya Defense Forces (KDF), will face a series of hit and runs-guerrilla attacks by units of Al-Shabaab guerillas. These guerrillas will use sniper fire, and bombings to inflict causality on the troops.
Al-Shabaab got a boost when at least 20 experts from different countries including Yemeni and Nigeria came to offer support.
Training and recruiting new troops is primary at this stage when the militant group is nearly defeated. They want more troops to deploy.
There has been a decline in their bombings in Mogadishu and other areas. This is due to lack of capacity in these departments and they are outsourcing.
Boko Haram are very good in bombings. They have wreaked havoc in Nigeria in the recent past and their success rate is very credible.
Yemeni Al-Qaeda is very successful in commando attacks, suicide bombings, and hit and runs. They will share this expertise with Al-Shabaab.
The training and deployment is a rapid program to facilitate faster procurement of desired results in both Somalia and Kenya.
Kenya and Somalia will be targets with Somalia being a good target for suicide bombers and guerrillas and Kenya a target of Suicide bombers and a major terrorist attack.
Al-Shabaab Was Behind Garissa Attack Under Guidance by Foreign Militants, Possibly Boko-Haram
Anti-terrorism police reports on Garissa attack, refutes Al-Shabaab involvement. They blame locals, besides pointing out religious war (Muslims against Christians).
This not only insults the relatively good peace between the two religions, rather stokes embers on non-exitent ancient (16th Century Mongolian barbarianism) civilization behaviors.
We reported in June the outsourcing of Boko-Haram militants by Al-Shabaab.
Boko-Haram burns churches in Nigeria.
Boko-Haram operatives/militants wear masks when carrying out terrorists activities against Christians.
The terrorists who attacked the two churches in Garissa wore masks.
We coherently reported use of small units with specialized/well trained foreign mercenary to attack targets in the Country.
They will use guns and grenades to accomplish their tasks.
The similarity of the actions and the previous intelligence reports on Boko-Haram elements supporting Al-Shabaab shapes the face of the new terrorist plans and objectives.
The terrorists will use ethno-religious conflict to bring Kenyans to pay for invading Somalia.
Kenya has not reported ethno-religious animosity in decades and the existence of such a threat remains a low level threat to national security.
There has never been reports of Muslim/Extremist Islamic militants operating independently in Kenya seeking extremist Islamic establishments/goals such as persecution of Christians and destruction of their churches.
The policy deployed by Al-Shabaab is to use proxy wars,symbolic events, and ambushes to neutralize security.
End of Report
Strategic Intelligence News
Global Report
Contact us at djames@intelligencebriefs.com
Somali Independece Day, Catalyst to Al-Shabaab Garissa Attack
Intelligence analysis on terrorist planning, objectives, and patterns in their actions provide insight on what motivated the Garissa church attacks in Kenya by the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab.
Strategic Intelligence critically analyzed past actions of terrorists, including their dates, time, and relatively important times of the year to identify collation with aspects of the Garissa attack.
Terrorists actions and motivations are drawn from 'Freedom/independence from bondage or invasions and Kenya's KDF entry to Somalia to rout the militants links the 1st July Somali independence day with a jihad to gain freedom from Christian invasion (propaganda coined by the Al-Shabaab militants).
Al-Shabaab wanted a symbolic event to coincide with a similar one and their success in either would be embedded in the short-term history.
Objectives of such attacks is to inspire unity of purpose; terrorists use such success to rally unity and win sympathy from their follower.
The success levels of such an attack reposes confidence on the following besides weakening the perceived enemy's faith and purpose.
Al-Shabaab will continue to use such tactics to degrade the Kenya army's success against their reign in Somalia for a period.
Strategic Intelligence News
Global Security Report
Contact us at djames@intelligencebriefs.com
Strategic Intelligence critically analyzed past actions of terrorists, including their dates, time, and relatively important times of the year to identify collation with aspects of the Garissa attack.
Terrorists actions and motivations are drawn from 'Freedom/independence from bondage or invasions and Kenya's KDF entry to Somalia to rout the militants links the 1st July Somali independence day with a jihad to gain freedom from Christian invasion (propaganda coined by the Al-Shabaab militants).
Al-Shabaab wanted a symbolic event to coincide with a similar one and their success in either would be embedded in the short-term history.
Objectives of such attacks is to inspire unity of purpose; terrorists use such success to rally unity and win sympathy from their follower.
The success levels of such an attack reposes confidence on the following besides weakening the perceived enemy's faith and purpose.
Al-Shabaab will continue to use such tactics to degrade the Kenya army's success against their reign in Somalia for a period.
Strategic Intelligence News
Global Security Report
Contact us at djames@intelligencebriefs.com
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